The [Uncertain] Four Seasons

The [Uncertain] Four Seasons uses data from The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), a collaborative framework designed to improve knowledge of climate change by twenty climate modelling groups from around the world.

The CMIP5 framework predicts climate change data in various scenarios. This prediction data has been widely used in academia and industry, including the CoastalDEM model5 which predicts the number of people vulnerable to sea level rise and abrupt ecological disruption by climate change.

For this project, we used Soil moisture content1, Precipitation sum2, Sea surface temperature3 and Air temperature4data from CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario, a high Co2 emissions scenario that predicts climate data if our society does not take significant action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We also used the expected number of vulnerable people from sea level rise in the RCP8.5 scenario that is calculated based on the CoastalDEM model by Climate Central. To include biodiversity variation, the project uses predictions for Species collapse6 based on CMIP5 data (Temperature and Precipitation) by Trisos, C.H., Merow, C. & Pigot, A.L